US import cargo to surge amid potential port strike, tariff hikes
11-11-2024
US IMPORT CARGO TO SURGE AMID POTENTIAL PORT STRIKE, TARIFF HIKES
Import volumes
at major US container ports may exceed previous forecasts for the remainder of
the year due to concerns about a potential East Coast/Gulf Coast port strike
and anticipated tariff hikes under President-elect Donald Trump.
In
September, US ports handled 2.29m Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in terms
of import volumes, although final data from the Ports of New York/New Jersey
and Miami are still pending. This represents a 12.8% increase compared to
September last year and a slight 1.3% drop from August.
While October figures have not yet been
finalised, Global Port Tracker estimates that the month’s total will reach
2.13m TEU, marking a 3.7% year-over-year increase.
November is forecasted at 2.15m TEU, up by a
significant 13.6%, with December expected to reach 1.99m TEU, up
6.1%.
These figures would bring total US imports in 2024 to 25.3m TEU,
representing a 13.6% rise over 2023.
These forecasts have not been adjusted
following the recent election outcomes but do account for the possibility of a
port strike.
The report monitors and forecasts activity
for US ports including those on the West Coast like Los Angeles/Long Beach and
those on the East Coast such as New York/New Jersey and Gulf Coast.
Prior estimates had pegged October at 2.12m
TEU, November at 1.91m TEU, December at 1.88m TEU, with an overall prediction
for 2024 at 24.9m TEU.
NRF supply chain and customs policy
vice-president Jonathan Gold said: “October’s strike lasted only three days but
there’s the potential for a longer strike if a new labour contract is not
reached after the contract extension runs out in mid-January.
“That has retailers spending extra to bring
in cargo early or continue shifting it to the West Coast to avoid any potential
disruptions, much like they did earlier this year. And we’re hearing that some
merchants will also move up shipments to avoid the costly tariff increases
expected after Donald Trump returns to the White House. Neither of these
developments is good for retailers, their customers or the
economy.”
The International Longshoremen’s Association
briefly went on strike in October at East and Gulf Coast ports after its
contract with the US Maritime Alliance expired. The strike ended when both
sides reached an agreement for a wage increase and a contract extension through
15 January, with formal negotiations set to resume next week.
Looking ahead to early 2025, January is
predicted to see 2.01m TEU, up by 2.5%.
February’s forecast of 1.77m TEU reflects a
decline of 9.3%, due to the timing of the Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in
Asia, while March imports are expected to bounce back with 2.01m TEU, a growth
of 4.4%.
An NRF study disclosed this week warns that
Trump’s proposed tariff increments could inflate consumer prices by as much as
$78bn annually.
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said:
“We are witnessing elections around the world where discontent is leading to
inward-looking policies that threaten trade with the almost certain potential
for increasing tariffs.
“In the United States, this is particularly
true with the election of Donald Trump but it is not much different in Europe,
with the EU calling for tariffs to be applied to a growing number of products
from China.”
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