NRF economist optimistic about solid US holiday retail season
9-12-2024
NRF ECONOMIST OPTIMISTIC ABOUT SOLID US HOLIDAY RETAIL SEASON
The National Retail Federation (NRF)'s chief economist Jack Kleinhenz has stated expectations for a strong holiday sales period are intact following a robust third quarter and positive economic indicators.
Kleinhenz said the momentum for US holiday shopping has been building well in his economic outlook for the latest issue of the NRF’s Monthly Economic Review.
The NRF has also maintained its projection that retail sales for the November-December holiday period will see an increase of 2.5% to 3.5% compared to the previous year.
Earlier this month, the latest annual survey by the NRF and Prosper Insights & Analytics indicated that approximately 197m shoppers participated in the five-day shopping period from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday with 58% having commenced their holiday shopping by early November.
“Even though the traditional kick-off to the holiday season started with Black Friday, this holiday shopping season was already in full swing.
“Based on data seen so far, conditions are shaping up for a successful holiday retail season.
US economic growth remained strong in the third quarter with gross domestic product expanding more than many estimates of the economy’s long-run potential capacity. Personal consumption continues to provide the horsepower behind the economy, as it has throughout this expansion,” Kleinhenz said.
US economic growth remained strong in the third quarter with gross domestic product expanding more than many estimates of the economy’s long-run potential capacity. Personal consumption continues to provide the horsepower behind the economy, as it has throughout this expansion,” Kleinhenz said.
Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants, saw a year-over-year increase of 5.4% in October.
The third quarter GDP expanded at a rate of 2.8% annually and consumer spending rose by 3.5% from the previous year. Gross domestic income growth was slightly lower at 2.2%, suggesting some economic deceleration but not a complete halt in growth. The NRF forecasts a 2% annualised GDP increase for the fourth quarter.
According to Kleinhenz, consumer confidence has been on an upward trajectory, as evidenced by a rise in the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey for four consecutive months, reaching its highest point since April at 71.8 in November.
Despite natural disasters and significant labour strikes, October saw the creation of 12,000 new jobs, maintaining unemployment at 4.1%. Over a three-month period, employment increased by an average of 104,000 jobs per month.
Consumer spending continues to be robust according to Kleinhenz with disposable income rising by 5.1% and employee compensation increasing by 5.7% over last year’s figures in October. Consumer spending itself went up by 5.4%, alongside a rise in the personal saving rate to 4.4%.
Inflation measured by the Federal Reserve’s Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index ticked up slightly to 2.3% in October from September’s 2.1%. However, this trend appears to be declining and aligns closely with the Federal Reserve’s target inflation rate of 2%.
By Just Style
By Just Style
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