UK total retail sales in 2024 saw a marginal increase of 0.7% compared to 2023 with the surge in spend for Christmas failing to offset sluggish growth for retailers amid ongoing economic woes, according to the BRC-KPMG retail sales monitor.

January 7, 2025

For the quarter concluding in December, known as the Golden Quarter, there was a slight growth of 0.4% from the previous year. 

In December alone, there was a significant rise of 3.2% in overall retail sales compared to the same month in 2023, which had recorded an increase of 1.9%. This figure surpassed both the three-month and 12-month average growth rates of 0.4% and 0.7%, respectively. 

In 2024, Black Friday occurred in December, shifting from its November date the previous year. This scheduling change led to a dip in November’s performance metrics and an uptick in December’s figures. However, this impact neutralised when assessing the data for the quarter ending in December. 

In the period spanning 24 November to 28 December 2024, non-food sector sales (including apparel) witnessed a notable boost with a 4.4% increase year-over-year in December, contrasting with a decline of 2.1% during the same period in 2023. This performance exceeded both the three-month average decline of 1.1% and the 12-month average decline of 1.5%. 

Physical store sales within the non-food category marginally increased by 0.4% year-over-year in December, compared to a drop of 2.9% in December of the previous year. These figures outperformed both the three-month and 12-month average declines of 2.4% and 2.2%, respectively. 

Online non-food retail sales surged by 11.1% year-over-year in December, recovering from a decrease of 0.8% seen in December of the prior year. This growth rate exceeded both the three-month average increase of 1.2% and reversed the 12-month average decline of 0.4%. 

The proportion of non-food purchases made online rose to a penetration rate of 39.6% in December from 37.2% during the same month in the preceding year, surpassing the annual average rate of online penetration which stood at 36.6%. 

Under the online sales category growth rankings, house textiles, clothing, footwear, health and beauty, home accessories, and other non-food categories showed growth in December compared to November.  

Food sector sales experienced a growth of 1.7% year-over-year in December, a decrease from the previous year’s increase of 6.3%. This rate fell short of both the three-month and 12-month averages of 2.1% and 3.3%, respectively. 

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “Following a challenging year marked by weak consumer confidence and difficult economic conditions, the crucial ‘golden quarter’ failed to give 2024 the send-off retailers were hoping for. Non-food was particularly hard-hit, with sales contracting from the previous year. Food sales fared better over the Christmas period, ticking up slightly from the previous year, meanwhile beauty products, jewellery and electricals made a strong showing under the tree this year.” 

International corporate tax partner at Spencer West LLP, Mark Tan highlighted that non-food sales experiencing a significant decline, highlights the uneven recovery across sectors.

Dickinson added: “While we project sales growth to average 1.2% in 2025, this is below the projected shop price inflation of 1.8%. This means volumes are likely to fall this year, all while the regulatory and tax burden on retailers will increase costs by £7bn ($8.80bn) from rising National Insurance Contributions (NIC), increasing national living wage, confirmed in the Budget, and new packaging levies.  

“With little hope of covering these costs through higher sales, retailers will likely push up prices and cut investment in stores and jobs, harming our high streets and the communities that rely on them. Government must find ways to mitigate this, so that retailers can invest more in growth and jobs, starting with its planned business rates reform where it must ensure that no shop ends up paying higher rates than they do already.” 

Tan sees the additional £7bn as a tipping point. He explained: “For many retailers, particularly those operating across borders, this growing burden is not just a compliance issue – it’s an existential risk. The need to navigate diverse tax regimes, transfer pricing challenges, and ongoing scrutiny of digital sales has made robust tax governance essential for survival.”

He continued: “As tax philosophies increasingly intersect with environmental and social goals, retailers must find innovative ways to integrate tax efficiency into their broader operational strategies. Supply chain restructuring, intelligent application of tax strategies, and proactive engagement with policymakers are now critical tools in mitigating these pressures.

“For governments, the challenge lies in balancing revenue generation with economic growth. Retailers are not just taxpayers; they are employers, innovators, and community anchors. Without a recalibration of the cumulative tax burden, high streets may continue to decline, weakening the very foundation of local and national economies.”

Tax Partner at Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP (Katten), Charlotte Sallabank pointed out the increase in employer NICs means “businesses will have three options”. These include absorbing the cost, passing the costs on to their employees through fewer salary increases or lower bonuses, or passing them on to consumers by increasing prices.

She was also keen to point out that passing on costs through price increases will likely negatively impact demand, putting a further strain on sales growth.”

KPMG’s UK head of consumer, retail & leisure Linda Ellett believes 2025 will see retailers increasingly utilising customer data and AI technology to deliver increased personalisation when it comes to targeting products and offers to their current, and potential, customers.

Data from BRC and Sensormatic data released recently revealed that across the UK in 2024, there was a 2.2% reduction in overall foot traffic compared to the previous year.  

 By Just Style