February
apparel and textile imports rapidly slowed as worries around US tariffs and a
trade war started to sink in for fashion brands and retailers.
According to the latest import data from the US Office of Textiles and Apparel (OTEXA) apparel imports moderately went up 3.2% in value and 1.5% in quantity during February, much lower than the 18-19% increase seen in late 2024 and January 2025.
Of the top 10 apparel importers to the US,
only four saw an increase in shipment volumes during February: Pakistan, India,
Bangladesh and China.
Dr Sheng Lu, professor of apparel studies at
the University of Delaware shared the following observations with Just Style.
“The much-slowed growth confirmed that the earlier US apparel import surge was
largely driven by fashion companies’ worries about the upcoming tariff hikes
rather than an actual increase in consumer demand.”
Lu said beyond the tariff concern for
companies, US consumer confidence also fell sharply during February, which
could lead to a steep drop in US apparel imports ahead. For example, the
Consumer Confidence Index dropped to a two-year low of 92.9 in March 2025, down
from 100.1 the previous month (1985=100). Similarly, the Expectations Index —
which measures consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labour
market conditions — plunged to 65.2, marking its lowest level in 12 years.
“With the announcement of reciprocal tariffs
and the growing likelihood of an economic recession, US consumer demand for
clothing may decline significantly, potentially leading to the cancellation of
many sourcing orders.”
Lu also says apparel imports have become
more expensive. Measured in dollars per square metres equivalent (SME), the
unit price of US apparel imports averaged $3.06/SME in the first two months of
2025, up from $3.03/SME a year ago (or a 1.3% increase). The unit price of US
apparel imports from many leading Asian countries rose at a notably higher
rate, including China (up 2.9%), Vietnam (up 3.6%), and Bangladesh (up 2.6%),
as well as those from Mexico (up 4.7%) and CAFTA-DR (up 0.6%).
“This result reflected the growing pressure
of sourcing and production costs facing US fashion companies and their
suppliers, driven by rising labour costs and raw material prices among other
factors. Indeed, if Trump’s reciprocal tariffs ultimately take effect, import
prices could increase even more significantly.”
Pakistan saw the biggest increase in
shipment volumes at 29.4% to 6.3m SME.
India closely followed with a 28% increase to 13.4m SME.
Bangladesh, the third largest apparel
supplier to the US, saw shipment volume growth of 3% to 22.7m SME.
China, still the largest apparel supplier to
the US with a 32% market share saw shipment volumes increase 1.6% to 66.4m SME.
Vietnam, the second biggest apparel supplier
to the US fell into decline with a 1.9% year on year drop in shipment volumes
to 35.3m SME.
Other key supplier countries in Asia, like
Indonesia, saw shipment volumes decline by 4.7% to 8.8m SME and Cambodia’s
apparel shipment volumes reduced by 4.3% to 9.5m SME.
Lu observes fashion companies’ sourcing
diversification efforts appeared to slow amid rising uncertainty. In February
2025, Asian countries altogether accounted for 71.5% of the total value of US
apparel imports — unchanged from a year earlier. Likewise, in the first two
months of 2025, the top five suppliers (including China, Vietnam, Bangladesh,
Cambodia, and India) together made up 63.7% of US apparel imports, even higher
than 59.7% over the same period in 2024. Even China’s market share remained stable
in February 2025 compared to a year ago (i.e., 18.4% in value and 32% in
quantity)
“These figures suggest that US fashion
companies have become more hesitant to adjust their sourcing base in response
to the universal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which target
nearly all US trading partners. As a result, US fashion companies may find the
sourcing diversification strategies no longer as effective as in the past in
effectively mitigating their sourcing risks.
The sharpest declines were seen across
Central American supplier countries.
Honduras booked an 11.6% fall in shipment
volumes to 4.9m SME during February.
Nicaragua saw a 23.6% year-on-year decline to 3.9m SME.
Apparel imports from Mexico fell 3.3% to
4.8m SME.
Lu points out there is no evidence to show
that the current trading environment has benefited from nearshoring from the
Western Hemisphere.
On the contrary, measured in quantity, in
February 2025, only 7.6% of US apparel import market share came from CAFTA-DR
members, a notable drop from 9.6% a year ago.
Similarly, Mexico had a 2.3% market share of
US apparel imports in February 2025 based on quantity, compared to its 2.4%
quantity-based market share a year earlier.
Lu adds: “As over 90% of CAFTA-DR and
Mexico’s apparel exports are destined for the US market, losing momentum in
exports to the US could have devastating consequences for garment factories and
their workers in the Western Hemisphere.”
By Just Style