The latest Global Port Tracker report notes growth as high as 65% in some months during 2021 was the result of increased consumer demand, retailers’ efforts to stock up to mitigate supply chain challenges, and comparisons against periods early in 2020 when many stores were closed because of the pandemic. But increases returned to single digits by last autumn and should remain there this year.

Nonetheless, volumes of about 2.2m Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) or more expected during most months in the first half of 2022 will be near-records.

US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.11m TEU in November, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was down 4.5% from October but up 0.5% year-over-year. Ports have not reported December numbers yet, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.18m TEU, up 3.7% year-over-year. A TEU is one 20-foot container or its equivalent.

Those numbers would bring 2021 to a total of 25.9m TEU, a 17.9% increase over 2020’s record high of 22m TEU that was set despite the pandemic.

January is forecast at 2.23m TEU, up 8.6% year-over-year, while February is forecast at 1.95m TEU, up 4.2%.

Looking further ahead, March is at 2.19m, down 3.3%; April at 2.2m TEU, up 2.5%, and May at 2.32m TEU, down 0.5%.

“Even with the holiday season behind us, supply chain challenges continue,” NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold says.

“The huge increases in imports we’ve seen have levelled out, but volume is still at high levels. We hope the system will find a way to catch up, but there is much that remains to be done to clear out port backlogs and increase capacity throughout the supply chain. Amid all of this, the Omicron variant is a wild card that could not only impact the supply chain workforce but once again drive more imports if consumers stay home and spend their money on retail goods rather than going out.”

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett adds: “Economic indicators are giving us a paradoxical view of the direction of the US and global economies. The atmosphere of uncertainty is likely to have an impact on demand going forward. We are already seeing short-term growth rates declining, and we believe trade growth is returning to normal levels reflective of economic factors. We do not expect that double-digit expansion of import volumes will continue in 2022.”

While imports do not correlate directly with sales, the forecast comes as NRF said last month it expects holiday sales during November and December to grow 11.5% over last year.

By Just Style