The month-on-month dip from May of 4.6% was larger than typical for this time of year in pre-pandemic times, and following similar month-on-month declines in April and May, this made June’s year-on-year result the biggest drop in the history of the Index.

While almost all categories reported negative growth as retailers continue to struggle against high 2020 comparisons, clothing sales were up by 18.6%.

Further positivity can also be seen in the Average Basket Volume (ABV) as it maintains a steady growth rate for 2021, suggesting an increasing level of consumer comfort with big-ticket and volume spend online. In June 2021, the ABV stood at GBP134, compared to GBP85 in June 2020.

“Growth rates are confusing at the moment – historically low due to tough year-on-year comparators and easing of restrictions, though volumes remain very high – but some metrics are more reliable, such as the overall ABV. While there was hardly any increase in ABV between 2019 and 2020, it has shot up across 2021 so far; in June 2021 it was 62% higher than June 2020,” says Andy Mulcahy, strategy and insight director, IMRG.

“There are multiple possible causes, but the main one appears to be that retailers in some categories are finding they are less reliant on discounting to drive sales at the moment; with such high demand running down stock and ongoing issues around supply, shoppers are far more likely to buy an item when they see it in stock, rather than shop around for a better price. This is not true of all categories, however, with beauty being a notable exception.” 

Chris Long, director, retail consulting, Capgemini, adds: “The steep fall in June of 14.1% is a strong indication that consumer confidence is growing to get back out on the high-street as lockdown eases and the vaccine rollout continues. We can expect this shift in spend between online and the high-street to continue, with retailers grappling demand swings and stock challenges across channels to ensure availability for consumers as their shopping habits change.

“Looking ahead it’s going to be interesting to see how the 19 July ‘Freedom Day’ impacts online spend, although most restrictions will be eased for the high-street there is a potential for an increase in self-isolation numbers from track and trace, which could slow the decline in online demand as many rely on home delivery.”